In the 2024 election, Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris by sweeping all seven swing states. He won the popular vote as well, but by a relatively slim margin. When all the votes are counted (get it together California!) his margin is predicted to be only 1.5 points. For months the polls told us we were in a very close election and that’s exactly what we got.
Now comes the time when we all attempt to decipher what voters were communicating about their interests. This is especially difficult to do in a close election. Political scientist Tom Wood observes that the nature of Trump’s win provides surprisingly little information about how he did it. On X he writes: “It’s the modesty of the shift in presidential vote, and the absence of geographical clustering, which belies simple explanations for Trump’s reelection.” In close elections, it is possible to make a compelling case that any issue or action was the one that made the difference.
