The Gen Z Gender Divide is Larger Than Ever
When it comes to politics, young women and men remain far apart
In case it was not already obvious, 2024 was not a great year for Democrats. President Joe Biden recorded his lowest approval rating of his entire term in the summer of 2024—an anemic 36 percent. Although inflation had fallen from pandemic highs, voters still largely blamed Democrats for the spike in costs, and affordability was a salient electoral issue. Polls showed that the Republican Party was more trusted to handle the most important issues of the day. Whether it was dealing with immigration, reducing crime, defending the country from terrorism, or strengthening the economy, the GOP held a massive edge over the Democrats. Candidates always matter, but in 2024 the Democratic Party faced a tsunami of voter disaffection and doubt.
Donald Trump did very well among young men in the last election—an outcome that some attributed to his bro-friendly campaign strategy, such as associating with UFC fighters and male-friendly podcasters. But Trump gained ground among young women as well—a group that has historically despised him. This surprising result begged the question: Is the political gap between young men and women shrinking?
Two years on, new evidence shows the political divide has not disappeared. In fact, a new study suggests that, if anything, the political distance between young men and women has grown. The 2026 National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS) shows a remarkable change in the political trajectory of young women. Conducted annually by the Pew Research Center, NPORS data is valuable because of its methodology. It employs a multi-method design to produce reliable benchmarks that cannot be found in government surveys. The survey is administered by mail, using traditional phone calls and online methods to reduce nonresponse bias. (Response rates for NPORS surveys can be 8 to 9 times higher than a typical telephone survey.) These surveys produce some of the most rigorous and reliable estimates we have for things like party identification and religious affiliation. No poll is infallible, but these surveys are worthy of attention.
According to the NPORS study, Americans are slightly less Republican and more Democratic in 2026 than they were in 2024, which one might expect given the current political environment. But what stands out in the newly released data is the size of the gender gap among young adults. Roughly two-thirds (66 percent) of young women identify as Democrats or lean towards the Democratic Party. And among young men? It’s only 44 percent. More young men identify as Republican than Democrat. In fact, generational differences in partisan identity are only evident among women. The youngest and the oldest men have near-identical partisan attachments.
This represents a break from the past when young adults—both men and women—were generally more liberal and Democratic than older Americans. Looking back over the last six years, what’s notable to me is that Republican identity has grown among young men, while the pattern is less clear for young women. In 2026, nearly half of young men are Republicans, a greater share than identified this way in 2020, and only down slightly since 2024. Whereas for young women, Republican identity has plummeted. Only 27 percent of young women identify as Republicans or as an independent who leans toward the Republican Party. Since 2020, young women have shown much greater volatility in their political allegiances.
The popularity of incumbent presidents has a bearing on partisan attachment, especially for those who demonstrate less interest in politics or have a shorter voting history. We might expect both young men and women to shift to the left in response to the current political climate, but each group appears to be responding to Trump’s recent implosion quite differently.
The sudden rise in Republican identity among young women in 2024 did not presage a more enduring political realignment. Two years out, the 2024 result looks like an outlier. I would argue that young liberal women were simply fed up with Joe Biden and mistrustful of Kamala Harris. This was no surprise. Young liberals felt apathetic about Biden from the very beginning. In 2023, we found that only ten percent of young liberals had a “very favorable” view of Biden compared to 62 percent of liberals age 65 or older.
Understanding the Gender Divide
In my forthcoming book, Generation Uncoupled, I dedicate an entire chapter to teasing out the dynamics behind the growing political gap between young men and women. It’s not about any one thing—Trump, abortion, concerns about gender inequality, feminism, or male podcasters. In American politics today, gender has become an increasingly salient attribute that structures political experiences and preferences. What has made it so salient is the sense of struggles that both young men and women perceive they face because of their gender. More than previous generations, they have come to believe they will be treated unfairly for being a man or woman.
This is a perspective that can quickly engender feelings of resentment and mutual recrimination. Suffering, both real and perceived, quickly leads to finger-pointing and blaming. We have reached a moment when both young men and women feel unappreciated and overlooked. Young people are taught that they need to be vigilant for all the ways they might be taken advantage of. In our recent survey of teenagers, we found that a majority of teen boys felt that girls received preferential treatment at their school. More girls today believe that the world is a perilous place, and that men are largely the reason why. These feelings of grievance may have completely legitimate origins, emerging through lived experiences or filtered through curated media channels, but they are also easily manipulated by self-interested politicians and online grifters.
There’s lots more to say about all of this. For now, I think research like this is critical because it offers a sense of where things stand. It’s a welcome opportunity to engage our curiosity, which is generally a good place to start.
Generation Uncoupled Updates:
Early Reviews: I’m grateful that the book has received so many exceptionally generous reviews from a remarkable collection of scholars, authors, and journalists. I cannot include all of them here, but I wanted to share a few highlights.
“In this well-written book, Daniel Cox combines creative empirical research with thoughtful reflections about where this relational crisis is leading and what we should do about it. Regardless of your politics, if you’re concerned about the future of America—and who isn’t? — this book is a must-read.” —Robert D. Putnam, Professor Emeritus, Harvard Kennedy School, bestselling author of Bowling Alone
“With a wealth of data and deft touch of a highly trained social scientist, Cox describes in careful detail the social atomization of modern America. But beyond that he also offers a pathway forward, that focuses on curiosity, kindness, and a real desire to cultivate community again.” —Ryan Burge, Professor of Practice, John C. Danforth Center on Religion and Politics at Washington University
“This book describes the deepening divide between young men and young women and shows that it is about much more than just politics…Thoughtful, urgent and compelling.” —Richard Reeves, author of Of Boys and Men and president of the American Institute for Boys and Men
“An essential read for parents, teachers, and community leaders who want to become more effective advocates for the young people in their lives.” —Anna Goldfarb, author of Modern Friendship
Goodreads Offer: My publisher is offering an opportunity to win a free galley of the book. If you’re on Goodreads, you can enter for a chance to win a free copy here. And if you’re like me and prefer to play it safe, you can always preorder a copy for yourself.
Feel free to get in touch if there is anything you want to know about the book or what my plans are for the fall. There are a lot of exciting things in the works.