In the 2020 presidential election, Trump surprised a lot of savvy political analysts when he increased his support among Hispanic voters by sizable margins. A Pew post-election analysis found that nearly four in ten (38 percent) Hispanic voters supported Trump in the 2020 election - a 10-point increase over his performance four years earlier.
This startling development unleashed a slew of predictions about what this would mean for the future of American politics. The Economist noted that Trump’s minority support among Hispanic voters is “catastrophic for the left.” I’m not quite sure I agree, but it’s worth trying to understand what’s happening among Hispanic Americans that could fundamentally alter their political preferences.
One of the most important trends shaping Hispanic culture is the decline of Catholicism. Fewer Hispanics identify as Catholic and a growing number have become Protestant or nonreligious. Over the last decade, the percentage of Hispanics who identified as Cathol…
